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The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) October Oil Market Report focuses on diesel, but its warning extends to airlines as well. According to IATA, jet fuel prices are now lowest in the Middle East and highest in Europe.
The IEA said on 14 October that the market for gasoil, which includes diesel, will stay tight “well into 2027”. The balance, it said, “is dependent on a recovery of product supply from the Middle East”. Jet fuel gets only a passing mention, though the same Gulf exports decide its supply.
Winter Pivot: Refiners Turn to Diesel
Refiners draw jet fuel and diesel from the same middle cut of crude, and more of one normally means less of the other. The IEA’s report shows the trade-off at work: “tight jet fuel markets this summer encouraged refiners to maximise kerosene production, thereby reducing gasoil yields.”
While diesel and jet fuel come from the same refined source, international policies often focus heavily on diesel while overlooking jet fuel supplies.
Diesel Gets Priority in Emergency Stock Draw
On 2 October, the G7 countries committed to releasing 100m barrels of emergency stocks over four months, including a significant amount of diesel in the first 20 days. Its statement does not mention jet fuel or kerosene. EU law lets member states count jet fuel towards their emergency reserves but does not require them to hold any.
Chokepoints and Surging War-Risk Premiums
Refined product and LPG shipments from the Middle East “have risen much slower than crude oil flows and remain below half of their pre-war levels”, the IEA said. Refined product exports went from 4.7m barrels a day before the war to 1.9m in September.
Jet fuel shows the bottleneck sharply. From 13 September to 5 October, no tanker carrying jet fuel passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Vortexa, a cargo-tracking firm. Jet fuel loaded west of the Strait fell from 420,000 barrels a day a month earlier to 140,000 in the two weeks to 5 October.
No tanker carrying jet fuel crossed the Strait of Hormuz between 13 September and 5 October; Middle East jet fuel cost $165 a barrel, against $203 in Europe and the CIS. Map: Aljaweea, sources: IEA, Vortexa, Platts, IATA, Reuters
Since 1 April, Platts has priced clean refined products loaded inside the Strait separately from those loaded outside, jet fuel among them. Zawya reported that the gap reflects shipping risk: insurance, freight and delays. A senior industry analyst Zawya cited, estimated the diesel gap to be $38 a barrel.
The Red Sea route has its own challenges. By 25 September, quoted war-risk premiums for Saudi-linked tankers at Yanbu had risen to about 3% of a vessel’s value, Reuters reported. Tankers with no Saudi link paid 0.2-0.3%.
Airlines in the Red Despite Low Gulf Prices
In the week to 9 October, jet fuel in the Middle East averaged $165 a barrel, the lowest of IATA’s six regions. Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States paid $203, the highest.
Jet fuel has roughly doubled in price in every IATA region since 2025; the Middle East rose least, by 97% to $165 a barrel. Chart: Aljaweea, source: IATA
However, the region’s lower prices are not expected to keep the region’s airlines out of the red. On 7 June, IATA forecast a net loss of $4.3bn for Middle East carriers in 2026, the only region in loss. It listed “relatively secure access to fuel supply” among the region’s strengths. In August, Middle East carriers’ traffic fell 14.6% year on year.
“I think jet fuel keeps me awake,” Antonoaldo Neves, Etihad’s chief executive, told Gulf News on 14 September. Qatar Airways’s chief executive, Hamad Al-Khater, said on 23 September that passing on fuel costs would be “an option of last resort”.
What to Watch
The IEA’s next Oil Market Report is expected in mid-November. Arab airlines meet in Doha on 2-4 November for the annual general meeting of the Arab Air Carriers Organization, chaired by Mr Al-Khater. For jet fuel, the indicator to watch is the movement of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Stay informed. Get the latest aviation and space news from the Arab world on WhatsApp and Telegram as soon as it is published, or subscribe to our newsletter for a weekly round-up. You can also add us to your preferred sources to see more of our stories in Google Search.
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/* Accessibility quick fixes (WCAG 2.2 AA test, 27 Oct 2026). Safe to switch off.
1 skip link · 2 form autofill · 3 language switcher name · 4 dark-mode button name and state
5 mobile menu state and focus · 6 heading levels for screen readers · 7 author photos
8 form errors linked to fields · 9 "opens in a new tab" for screen readers · 10 main content area */
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/* Aljaweea newsletter form (form 10): on Arabic pages, pre-select the Arabic edition.
2 Nov 2026 (Claude, runbook 8.82). Decision D-05 asks for the page language to be pre-selected through
the WPML translation of the field's default value; WPML does not offer that value for translation,
so this is the flagged fallback. The stored values stay "English" / "العربية" for the FluentCRM tag routing.
Rollback: set this snippet to Draft (the Arabic page then pre-selects English). */
(function () {
function run() {
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}
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if (document.readyState === 'loading') { document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', run); } else { run(); }
})();
/* Aljaweea forms: let Fluent Forms show its own error messages.
2 Nov 2026 (Claude, runbook 8.86; finding V-1 of the 8.85 test). Without this, the browser's own email check
stops the form when an address has no "@" and shows the browser's pop-up in the browser's language (English on
Arabic pages for most visitors), so our message from the forms standard (1.4) never appears.
"novalidate" switches off only the browser's own check: Fluent Forms still checks every field in the browser
and again on the server, so a badly formed address is still refused - now with our wording, in the page language.
Rollback: set this snippet to Draft. */
(function () {
function run() {
var forms = document.querySelectorAll('form.frm-fluent-form');
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}
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