Airbus Forecasts Middle East Demand for 125 Freighter Deliveries by 2045

Airbus presented its 2026 cargo forecast at the Cargo Facts Symposium in Nashville on 21 October. It expects the world to need 2,670 new and converted freighters by 2045, including 125 deliveries to Middle Eastern operators.

What the Gulf Has Already Ordered

Three Gulf airlines alone have announced orders for 48 new-build freighters, equivalent to more than a third of Airbus’s forecast demand for the Middle East. The largest share is Qatar Airways’ 34 firm orders for Boeing’s 777-8F, placed in 2022. Etihad Airways has 10 Airbus A350Fs on order, and Saudia Cargo ordered 4 more Boeing 777Fs in July. Dubai Aerospace Enterprise has since agreed to purchase the four aircraft and lease them back to Saudia, with deliveries scheduled between October 2026 and May 2027. The 48 compares with an existing fleet of 80 Boeing and Airbus freighters at Middle Eastern airlines in April, Cargo Facts reported.

The 48-aircraft subtotal excludes Emirates, which also has freighters on order. In June, Emirates said it expected five additional production 777Fs by December 2026 and four further converted 777-300ERSFs by the end of 2027.

Airbus’s forecast for the Middle East is up from 100 freighter deliveries by 2044 in last year’s outlook to 125 by 2045. That includes both new-build aircraft and passenger-to-freighter conversions, but Airbus gives no regional split. All 48 aircraft ordered by the three Gulf airlines are new-builds; globally, conversions account for almost two-thirds of forecast deliveries.

How the Two Forecasts Compare

Airbus raised its 20-year requirement from 2,605 freighters in its 2025 forecast to 2,670. It expects most of the 65 extra aircraft to replace older freighters rather than add capacity. At the same time, it cut expected growth in air cargo traffic from 3.3% a year to 3.2%.

Boeing expects more. Its Commercial Market Outlook, published in July, forecasts demand for more than 2,900 new and converted freighters over the same period. Boeing also assumes faster growth in air cargo traffic, at 3.7% per year, compared with Airbus’s 3.2%. The gap lies mostly in conversions, with about 2,000 in Boeing’s outlook versus 1,700 in Airbus’. On new-build aircraft, the two almost agree: Boeing sees 930, Airbus 970.

The 2028 Deadline

A deadline shapes which new-build freighters airlines can still buy. From 1 January 2028, newly built aircraft covered by ICAO’s CO₂ emissions standard must comply before receiving their first certificate of airworthiness, unless exempted. Boeing’s current 777F does not meet the standard, but the US Federal Aviation Administration has granted an exemption allowing up to 35 newly built 777Fs to receive first certificates between 1 January 2028 and 1 January 2031. Saudia Cargo’s 4 new 777Fs are due before the deadline. Airbus says the A350F, which Etihad Airways has on order, is the first new freighter to fully meet the standard. The A350F first flew on 29 September 2026, starting a flight-test campaign of more than nine months. It had 115 orders from 14 disclosed customers at the end of August, Airbus said.