Middle East Rerouting: Airlines Face Millions in Losses Amid Regional Tensions

Amid escalating military tensions between the United States and Israel on the one side, and Iran on the other, global and Arab airlines have been forced to reroute their flights, divert them to alternative airports, or even cancel flights to avoid closed or hazardous airspace, incurring significant losses. This article identifies key alternative airports in the Arab world and examines the losses incurred by Arab carriers due to rerouting or the adoption of alternative hubs.

Experts estimate losses amounting to hundreds of millions of euros in the air transport sector. The world has not witnessed a crisis of this magnitude since the COVID-19 pandemic, especially given that the Middle East accounts for 40 per cent of scheduled air traffic, while Gulf carriers account for approximately 45 per cent of air transport between Europe and Asia.

Widespread airspace closures in the Middle East, whether temporary or total, have disrupted air traffic and left many passengers stranded in the Gulf, Asia, and other regions. Airlines have responded by establishing air bridges via alternative hubs and temporarily rerouting flights between Asia, Europe, and Africa to prioritise safer routes.

Bypassing the Gulf: Shifting Corridors & The New Alternative Hubs

With the total or partial closure of airspace and the suspension of flights at major Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, airlines have rerouted long-haul flight paths. Current alternative flight paths involve routing over North Africa or the Mediterranean, avoiding a direct crossing of the Gulf. Additionally, certain situations necessitate bypassing closed airspace by transiting over the Horn of Africa or the Red Sea.

Press reports indicate that traditional routes between Europe and Asia have changed dramatically, with a clear increase in flights crossing North African and Eastern Mediterranean airspace to avoid flying over conflict zones.

Furthermore, some airports not typically used as primary hubs have played a crucial role as alternative landing sites or as part of long-haul reroutes to avoid closed airspace. These include King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, Cairo International Airport, and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, some of which received diverted flights taking non-traditional routes to circumvent hot zones.

Using alternative airports and changing flight paths result in both direct and indirect additional costs for airlines, which include:

• Fuel Consumption: The Cost of Longer Routes When direct routes are unavailable, aircraft must fly longer distances, increasing flight times and fuel consumption. Airlines also carry larger fuel reserves to prepare for unexpected diversions, further raising fuel costs, which are a major part of operating expenses.
• The Price of Safety: Navigation Fee Increases. Rerouting also means traversing the airspace of new countries. According to overflight fee regulations and charges for air navigation services, airlines pay additional fees to countries whose airspace they use as alternative corridors. Often, these fees are higher on longer routes compared to the traditional paths previously relied upon by many carriers.

• Operational Pressure: Rescheduling Crews and Hubs When security concerns require diversions to alternative airports, airlines incur costs for landing, ground handling, parking, passenger accommodation, and crew rescheduling. These expenses can quickly add up to tens of thousands of dollars per flight in some cases.
• Indirect Losses: Passenger Compensation and Delays Losses extend beyond operating costs to include compensation for passengers affected by cancellations or long delays. Disruptions to airline networks also impact subsequent flights and reduce travel demand.

Changing flight paths and using alternative airports not only reshape the aviation map but also place significant financial and operational pressure on Arab and Gulf airlines. This situation may prompt some carriers to reconsider their business models during future periods of instability.